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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still